Weekly Market Snapshot

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

The economic calendar was relatively thin and, for the financial markets, was superseded by concerns about the Wuhan coronavirus. Hundreds of millions of people travel in the extended Lunar New Year holiday. The virus is likely to have a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy and the large amount of travel may further spread the virus.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell 0.3% in December, held down partly by a quirk in jobless claims (difficulties in adjusting for the late Thanksgiving appear to have shifted some claims in December; claims have since fallen back in January). Still, beyond the quirk in claims, the underlying trend in the LEI has been lower (down in four of the last five months, -0.7% since July). The shallow rate of decline in the LEI is more consistent with sluggish near-term growth than an outright recession. At -0.23, the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index remained consistent with below-trend growth.

Next week, the economic calendar picks up, although financial markets may still be sensitive to news of the Wuhan coronavirus. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged. Real GDP growth is expected to have risen at a moderate rate in the advance estimate for the fourth quarter. Slower inventory accumulation should subtract from growth, but a narrower trade deficit will add. It’s recommended that investors look beyond the headline figure and focus on the key components, consumer spending and business fixed investment.

Indices

Consumer Money Rates

Currencies

Commodities

Bond Rates

Treasury Yield Curve – 01/17/2020

As of close of business 01/16/2020

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 01/17/2020

As of close of business 01/16/2019

Economic Calendar

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All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates (RJA) at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete. Other departments of RJA may have information which is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute transactions in the securities mentioned in this report which may not be consistent with the report’s conclusions. RJA may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this report. For institutional clients of the European Economic Area (EEA): This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA Institutional Clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. There is no assurance that any of the trends mentioned will continue in the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results.