Weekly Market Guide
The S&P 500 has “cooled off” a bit this week following a ~7% run over the prior few weeks. The advance had pushed the S&P 500 to 16% above its 200 DMA, which has often preceded minor consolidations or short term pullbacks over the past 8 months. Positioning has gotten slightly more defensive beneath the surface, however this has come in conjunction with a normal moderation in interest rates and credit spreads remain low. In the short term, the market may need to work a little lower (not oversold yet). But the overall environment remains bullish- supportive Fed, robust GDP and EPS growth, stimulus, and a strong intermediate term technical backdrop (broad participation). This supports less downside in pullbacks, which we expect to be normal in nature when they occur. Market rotation is likely to continue, and also offer opportunity at the individual sector and stock level.
Q1 earnings season is underway, as 15% of S&P 500 companies have reported very strong Q1 results up to this point. 86% of these S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates by an aggregate 24% earnings surprise. For reference, the 15-year average for earnings surprises has been 4.7%; and the highest surprise on record (Q2 2020) was 23.5%. As a result, full Q1 earnings growth estimates are up to 28.3% (from 21.6% when earnings season began). Reports are set to ramp up meaningfully in the next two weeks- 36% of S&P 500 companies report next week and 27% the following week. We expect continued upside surprises, and forward estimates for 2021 and 2022 to maintain their higher revision trends. We remain above consensus for 2021 and 2022 S&P 500 earnings estimates- $190 and $220 respectively (vs consensus at $178 and $202).
While results have been above estimates at historically high rates over the past few quarters, price reactions have been below average- likely a function of large stock moves leading to more muted reactions. For example, Financials stocks outperformed significantly in Q1; and despite strong results and upside surprises so far, the average financials stock has moved -1.1% lower on results (albeit wide variances at stock level). On the flip side, health care stocks lagged in Q1, and it has been good to see positive price reactions (2.6%) to solid earnings. Many large technology companies report next week, and we are not only interested to hear results but also to see their price reactions. Performance was disappointing on strong results in Q4’20; but after consolidating relative strength for the past several months, the bar could be lower this time around. A strong quarter and price reactions could set the stage for improved Technology relative strength trends. Given Technology’s size, next week’s reports will also be very influential for the overall S&P 500 index.
IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES
This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Links to third-party websites are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or the collection or use of information regarding any websites users and/or members.
This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate, or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic, or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec. 501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works.
Index Definitions
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.
The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index’s three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
International Disclosures
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This document is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients.
For clients in France:
This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in “Code Monetaire et Financier” and Reglement General de l’Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
For institutional clients in the European Economic rea (EE ) outside of the United Kingdom:
This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
For Canadian clients:
This document is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.
Broker Dealer Disclosures
Securities are: NOT Deposits • NOT Insured by FDIC or any other government agency • NOT GUARANTEED by the bank • Subject to risk and may lose value
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.