Weekly market snapshot

 

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data.

In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics, Fed Chair Powell repeated that “if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so.” He had said the same thing during his March 16 press conference.

Durable goods orders fell more than expected (-2.2%) in February, partly reflecting a 30.4% drop in civilian aircraft orders. Ex-transportation, orders fell 0.6%, . Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to 187,000 in the week ending March 19, the lowest since September 1969. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed increased concerns about inflation but continued optimism on jobs.

Next week: Fresh economic figures for March begin to roll in, with a focus on the employment report. March payroll figures will be subject to a lot of potential noise (statistical uncertainty, seasonal adjustment, weather) – expect +470,000 ± 300,000. The underlying trend is what’s important and anecdotal evidence suggests that labor market conditions remain extremely tight. The ISM Manufacturing Index is likely to remain consistent with moderate growth, while details should reflect ongoing supply chain and capacity issues.

 

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	34,480.76	33,174.07	-5.11%
NASDAQ	13,614.78	13,129.96	-12.98%
S&P 500	4,411.67	4,259.52	-7.44%
MSCI EAFE	2,149.67	2,053.78	-7.98%
Russell 2000	2,065.02	2,011.67	-8.18%

 

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1 year ago
Prime Rate	3.50	3.25
Fed Funds	0.32	0.08
30-year mortgage	4.5	3.40

 

Currencies

	Last	1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.315	1.397
Dollars per Euro	1.109	1.198
Japanese Yen per Dollar	118.570	108.840
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.261	1.241
Mexican Peso per Dollar	20.519	20.400

 

Commodities

	Last	1 year ago
Crude Oil	103.63	64.60
Gold	1,941.80	1,729.20

Bond Rates

	Last	1 month ago
2-year treasury	2.14	1.58
10-year treasury	2.37	1.96
10-year municipal (TEY)	3.31	2.45

 

Bond Rates

	Last	1 month ago
2-year treasury	1.92	1.45
10-year treasury	2.18	1.95
10-year municipal (TEY)	3.03	2.6

Treasury Yield Curve – 3/25/2022

As of close of business 3/24/2022

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 3/25/2022

 

Economic Calendar

March 28	—	Advance Economic Indicators (February)
March 29	—	Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (February)
	—	CB Consumer Confidence (March)
March 30	—	ADP Payroll Estimate (March)
	—	Real GDP (1Q22, advance estimate)
March 31	—	Jobless Claims (week ending March 26)
	—	Personal Income and Spending (February)
	—	Chicago Business Barometer (March)
April 1	—	Employment Report (March)
	—	ISM Manufacturing Index (March)
April 5	—	ISM Services Index (March)
April 6	—	FOMC Minutes (March 15-16)
April 12	—	Consumer Price Index (March)
April 15	—	Good Friday Holiday (markets closed)
May 4	—	FOMC policy decision

 

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the author and are subject to change. There is no assurance any of the forecasts mentioned will occur or that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. International investing is subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards by country, and possible political and economic risks, which may be greater in emerging markets. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, and state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit. Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY) assumes a 35% tax rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. An investment cannot be made directly in these indexes. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor’s returns. U.S. government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual total market value of all final goods and services produced domestically by the U.S. The federal funds rate (“Fed Funds”) is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. The prime rate is the underlying index for most credit cards, home equity loans and lines of credit, auto loans, and personal loans. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by financial advisors. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business March 24, 2022.