Economic Commentary
The Federal Reserve reserves the right to change its mind
Economy & Policy May 09, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. It is very difficult for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to have any conviction at this time on the timing of interest rate moves when all the numbers on the economy, with probably the exception of soft data but especially consumer […]
Firms front-load increase in tariffs during Q1 2025
Economy & Policy May 02, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. The GDP report for the first quarter of the year showed a very engaged business sector as it rushed to try to minimize, as much as possible, the future impact of higher tariffs. Net exports of goods and services, which […]
The fate of the US dollar and US exceptionalism
Economy & Policy April 25, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. For all of those who follow our writings every week you know that we have fought hard to convince our readers, clients as well as advisors, that the preeminence of the US dollar is not in jeopardy (please refer to […]
Why don’t we fix the fiscal deficit? That will start fixing our trade deficit
Economy & Policy April 11, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Let’s be blunt. Some of the reasons, but not the only ones, why our trade deficits are so large is because government expenditures are too high and/or we are not collecting enough taxes. That is, the US economy is growing […]