Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 21, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. In the minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, participants expected no change in policy rates anytime soon, but officials saw a need for more clarity regarding the likely path, such as adopting output-based forward guidance. Residential construction figures rose […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 14, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Brief summaries of key elements in the economic outlook. The Big Picture: The overall economic outlook depends on the virus, efforts to contain it, and the degree of fiscal support. We’ve had a sharp- but-partial rebound in May and June, following a […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 14, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell below one million for the first time since mid-March (20 weeks). However, unadjusted claims had already dipped below that level a week earlier. (The seasonal adjustment is multiplicative, with exaggerated adjusted figures in August […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 07, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even  as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor […]