Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The economic calendar was relatively thin and, for the financial markets, was superseded by concerns about the Wuhan coronavirus. Hundreds of millions of people travel in the extended Lunar New Year holiday. The virus is likely to have a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy […]

Job growth slowed last year, partly reflecting a tighter job market. However, wage growth, while higher in 2019, has remained moderate, much lower than one would expect given the low unemployment rate. Private-sector payrolls averaged a 162,000 monthly gain in 2019, down from 215,000 in 2018. However, next month’s benchmark revisions to the establishment survey […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Investor optimism remained strong in the first day of trading 2020, but news that the US. Military had assassinated an Iranian general sent share prices lower. The price of oil rose and bond yields fell in response to heightened uncertainty. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to […]

A year ago, the baseline scenario for the economy was moderate growth, but with an elevated level on uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside. Trade policy uncertainty and slower global growth were dampening factors, but Fed policy was supportive. Investors were willing to look beyond the uncertainty. This year, trade policy is still uncertain, […]