Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Financial market participants have generally reacted little to economic data reports over the last several months. On a daily basis, the two key drivers have been trade policy and the Fed, and that’s expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However, tensions in Washington have escalated and […]

As expected, the Fed lowered short-term interest rates and officials remained divided about what to do next. The policy meeting came in a week that saw elevated funding pressures in money markets, which drove the effective federal funds rate above the top of the target range. On Friday, the New York Fed announced a series […]

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week to set monetary policy. It’s widely expected that the FOMC will lower the federal funds target range by another 25 basis points, although that’s not a done deal. We know from the FOMC minutes that officials were divided in late July: “several participants favored maintaining the same […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in the initial estimate for August, less than expected and despite a 25,000 boost from census hiring. For production workers, average hourly earnings advanced by 0.5% (+3.5% y/y). Monthly wage and payroll figures can be choppy, but the underlying trend in job growth is lower. Is that because of labor […]