Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Fed’s policy statement, the revised dot plot, and Chair Powell’s press conference reaffirmed expectations that monetary policy will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. That doesn’t mean that rates won’t be changed. The Fed stands ready to provide further accommodation if conditions warrant. However, the […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in the initial estimate for November (+266,000), with upward revisions to the gains for September and October (a net 41,000 higher). In contrast, the ADP estimate of private-sector payrolls rose more modestly (+67,000). What to believe? The unemployment rate has been […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Estimates of 4Q19 GDP growth fell sharply in mid-November, but rebounded in the last week. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model fell to 0.3% annual rate following the October reports on retail sales and industrial production. Currently, the Atlanta Fed’s estimate stands at 1.7%, reflecting […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Consumer attitude measures are divided by political affiliations. That’s nothing new. Sentiment readings have long depended partly on which party occupies the White House. Republicans currently rate economic conditions better, just as Democrats did during the Obama years (Independents fall somewhere in the middle). What’s different is […]