Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in the initial estimate for November (+266,000), with upward revisions to the gains for September and October (a net 41,000 higher). In contrast, the ADP estimate of private-sector payrolls rose more modestly (+67,000). What to believe? The unemployment rate has been […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Estimates of 4Q19 GDP growth fell sharply in mid-November, but rebounded in the last week. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model fell to 0.3% annual rate following the October reports on retail sales and industrial production. Currently, the Atlanta Fed’s estimate stands at 1.7%, reflecting […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Consumer attitude measures are divided by political affiliations. That’s nothing new. Sentiment readings have long depended partly on which party occupies the White House. Republicans currently rate economic conditions better, just as Democrats did during the Obama years (Independents fall somewhere in the middle). What’s different is […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Focusing more on a possible mini trade deal with China, financial market participants have largely ignored the recent economic data reports. The figures suggest a softer growth trend in early 4Q19 and many economists have been lowering their GDP forecasts. Growth is often lumpy from quarter to […]