Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Focusing more on a possible mini trade deal with China, financial market participants have largely ignored the recent economic data reports. The figures suggest a softer growth trend in early 4Q19 and many economists have been lowering their GDP forecasts. Growth is often lumpy from quarter to […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Theoretically, there is no single variable more important to the economy than productivity, or output per worker. Productivity growth is how we get improved living standards over time. Faster productivity helps to offset the impact of wage growth, supporting gains in corporate profits. However, in practice, the […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected last month, despite being held back by the strike at General Motors (which subtracted 42,000) and the exit of 20,000 temporary workers for the 2020 census. There is some uncertainty in these data. The birth/death model, which attempts to account for […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The economic calendar is as busy as it can get this week. Reports on consumer confidence, real GDP growth, employment, and manufacturing could alter the near-term outlook. Senior Fed officials have been divided on the appropriate course of monetary policy, but on Wednesday the Federal Open Market […]