Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 08, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The April Employment Report was flawed, reflecting issues with data collection, classification, and methodology. However, results were consistent with an unprecedented, sharp deterioration in labor market conditions, mostly at the lower rungs. Payrolls fell by more than 20 million, nearly erasing […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 08, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The April Employment Report was flawed, but signaled a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 20.5 million, nearly erasing all of the job gains since the last recession. The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, but the […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 01, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. In recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in claims for unemployment benefits pointed to a horrific economic impact from COVID-19. That sinking feeling has been reinforced by the major economic releases, which have shown a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 01, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Real GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q20, reflecting sharp declines in consumer spending (-7.6%) and business fixed investment (-8.6%). Personal spending fell 7.5% in March (-3.8% y/y), reflecting sharp declines in motor vehicles, […]