Economic Commentary

While the federal funds futures market is pricing in some chance (about 24%) of a rate cut this week, the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave rates steady. The market currently see a stronger probability (about 87%) of a July 31 rate cut, although that is subject to change depending on what […]

The May job market report disappointed, but it was hardly a disaster. Nonfarm payrolls were reported to have risen by 75,000 in the initial estimate, following a 224,000 gain in April. Still, downward revisions to the two previous months suggests that the underlying trend in job growth is slowing. Trade policy appears to have something […]

After my father, a Pearl Harbor survivor, died in 2011, we found a shoebox. It contained items that belonged to my Uncle Bill (my mother’s brother), who had also served in WWII. There was Bill’s birth certificate and baptism record, an address book, and some pages that looked like they were torn out of a […]

The partial government shutdown, poor weather, and the late Easter appeared to dampen the underlying pace of growth in the first quarter. However, April data on retail sales, industrial production, and durable goods orders suggest the softness will be longer lasting. Tariffs distorted activity in 2018, pulling forward imports and adding to inventory growth. However, […]