Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses his monthly economic outlook. COVID-19 has affected the data collection process for the major economic reports, including employment, consumer prices, retail sales, and industrial production. However, the incoming economic figures imply a stunningly swift, sharp decline in economic activity. This is especially clear in […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The broad range of economic data signal that a recession began in March. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the total of final goods and services produced in our economy) is expected to have fallen in the advance estimate for 1Q20. The […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Jobless claims fell to 4.43 million in the week ending April 17, down in recent weeks but still extremely elevated. Prior to seasonal adjustment, 24.4 million people have filed claims in the past five weeks – that’s nearly 15% of […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 17, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Economic data reports are generally backward-looking. There’s a lot of noise, reflecting statistical uncertainty and seasonal adjustment difficulties. Reports for March 2020 present a greater challenge. Social distancing was sporadic, with some states locking things down sooner than others. One should […]