Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 17, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. COVID-19 has affected data collection for key economic reports, making the reported data somewhat suspect. However, the direction is clear. Looking through the noise, it appears that the economy contracted in the first quarter and 2Q20 will be much worse. […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 09, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. For the most part, assessments of the economic impact of COVID-19 have been more qualitative than quantitative. Data reports are backward-looking and often distorted. However, in recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in jobless claims has helped us to begin assessing the […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 09, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 6.61 million in the week ending April 4, down from 6.87 million in the week before. Prior to seasonal adjustment, 15.1 million people have filed claims in the past three weeks – that’s 9.2% […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 03, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. There’s always a story behind the economic data. The Employment Report understated the labor market deterioration in March, while seasonal adjustment amplified the level of job losses in the first half of the month. More importantly, claims for unemployment benefits doubled […]