Economic Commentary

In his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell discussed the challenge of keeping the U.S. economy “in a favorable space” in the face of significant risks. Minutes of the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting had shown that officials were split on the appropriate […]

It was a roller coaster week for the financial markets. President Trump postponed to December 15 about 60% of the tariff increases that has been set for September 1, presumably to save Christmas (the list of delayed items included things likely to be purchased during the holiday shopping season). The 10-year Treasury note yield fell […]

Next week, the economic calendar picks up again. The Consumer Price Index is expected to get a small boost from higher gasoline prices, which normally fall in July. Ex-food and energy, inflation should remain moderate (note that year-over-year inflation in the core CPI is trending about 0.4 percentage points higher than the PCE Price Index, […]

It was an eventful week. The Fed lowered short-term interest rates, as expected, and ended the unwinding of the balance sheet two months early, but Chair Powell disappointed stock market participants by describing the move as “a mid-cycle adjustment” rather than the start of a series of rate cuts. In his press conference, Powell repeatedly […]