Economic Commentary

The advance estimate of 1Q19 GDP growth will arrive on Friday (April 26). There’s always a lot of uncertainty in the advance figure (we’re missing a number of components) and that is especially so this time. The partial government shutdown and poor weather had an adverse impact. A narrower trade deficit should add to the […]

Tax Time – The Treasury Department reported that the federal deficit totaled $691 billion for the first half of FY19, up from $600 billion for the first half of FY18. The full-year deficit (ending in September) is expected to hit $1 trillion. Tax receipts were up 0.7% in the first six months of FY19. Individual […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose a bit more than expected in the initial estimate for March. While the monthly data are subject to statistical noise and seasonal adjustment difficulties, the underlying trend in job growth is likely moderating. That shouldn’t be a surprise. The job market is tight and firms continue to report difficulties in hiring new […]

The GDP Arithmetic – As anticipated, the estimate of fourth quarter GDP growth was revised lower (to 2.2%, vs. +2.6% in the “initial” estimate). All major components grew a bit less than in the previous estimate. Recent figures have generally been consistent with a lackluster pace of growth in 1Q19. However, while we are poised to […]