Economic Commentary

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged and provided some details on the unwinding of the balance sheet. The revised dot plot showed that a majority of senior Fed officials expect no change in rates in 2019 (but a majority also anticipate one or more hikes in 2020). In contrast, […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a disappointing 20,000 in the initial estimate for February, following a strong 311,000 gain in January. However, it appears that mild weather helped to boost the January figure and depressed the February data. With the partial government shutdown behind us, the unemployment rate fell back to 3.8%. Tight labor market conditions […]

Economic data releases that were delayed due to the partial government shutdown, including fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product, have been rolling in. These reports may seem a bit dated, and the figures are subject to revision, but the hope is that, combined with fresher figures for January and February, they may help to gauge the […]

Fed Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. In past decades, this testimony was a huge deal for the financial markets. These days, not so much. The Fed is a lot more forthcoming. Policy meeting minutes are released a lot sooner. Officials are more open […]