Economic Commentary

The year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings was a bit exaggerated in the October employment report, but the underlying trend is higher. Growth in nonfarm payrolls rebounded from the effects of Hurricane Florence, while Hurricane Michael “had no discernible effect,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Looking through the weather and the noise, job […]

Real GDP rose at a 3.5% annual rate in the advance estimate for 3Q18, about as expected. However, there were a few surprises in the details. Consumer spending growth was even stronger than anticipated. However, business fixed investment was unexpectedly weak. The quarterly swings in inventory growth and net exports were larger than anticipated, likely […]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Why did the stock market fall? No reason, and every reason. There doesn’t need to be a catalyst. Sometimes the market is simply going to do whatever the market is going to do, but the list of worries was already there. Going forward, […]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Why did the stock market fall? No reason, and every reason. There doesn’t need to be a catalyst. Sometimes the market is simply going to do whatever the market is going to do, but the list of worries was already there. Going forward, […]