Economic Commentary

Economic data releases that were delayed due to the partial government shutdown, including fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product, have been rolling in. These reports may seem a bit dated, and the figures are subject to revision, but the hope is that, combined with fresher figures for January and February, they may help to gauge the […]

Fed Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell will deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. In past decades, this testimony was a huge deal for the financial markets. These days, not so much. The Fed is a lot more forthcoming. Policy meeting minutes are released a lot sooner. Officials are more open […]

Data delayed due to the government shutdown have begun to arrive, filling in the picture for 4Q18, and we’re also getting fresher data on the economy in early 2019. The figures have been mixed, and often surprising, which allows one to make about any kind of argument one wants. However the data are also consistent […]

In the next few weeks, economic reports that were delayed due to the partial government shutdown will continue to trickle in, helping to piece together the fourth quarter picture. That’s fine but investors are more interested in the future. Will stalemates on the budget and trade policy be resolved? In his Monetary Policy Testimony to […]