Economic Commentary

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet this week to set monetary policy. It’s widely expected that the FOMC will lower the federal funds target range by another 25 basis points, although that’s not a done deal. We know from the FOMC minutes that officials were divided in late July: “several participants favored maintaining the same […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in the initial estimate for August, less than expected and despite a 25,000 boost from census hiring. For production workers, average hourly earnings advanced by 0.5% (+3.5% y/y). Monthly wage and payroll figures can be choppy, but the underlying trend in job growth is lower. Is that because of labor […]

Recent economic data reports have continued to paint a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, with strength in consumer spending and a mild recession in manufacturing. On top of this, investors remain concerned about several issues, including global growth, geopolitical uncertainties, trade policy, and an inverted yield curve. However, stock market participants are generally hopeful […]

In his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Powell discussed the challenge of keeping the U.S. economy “in a favorable space” in the face of significant risks. Minutes of the July 30-31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting had shown that officials were split on the appropriate […]