Economic Commentary

Federal Reserve officials will meet on September 25-26 to set monetary policy. It’s widely expected that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the federal funds target range by another 25 basis points, to 2.00-2.25%. The four Fed governors and twelve district bank presidents will also submit revised projections of growth, unemployment, and inflation, extending […]

The minutes of the July 31-August 1 Fed policy meeting and Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech reinforce the view that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates again on September 26. The pace of monetary tightening beyond that is unclear, reflecting a number of uncertainties. The impact of trade wars depends on how long […]

The Kansas City Fed’s annual monetary policy symposium begins later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Around 120 people attend the conference, including central bankers from around the world. In the past, the Fed chair’s speech has often been a big deal for the financial markets. This will be Powell’s first speech as Fed chair […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose less than anticipated in the initial estimate for July, but figures for May and June were revised higher. The unemployment rate edged down, but the trend has been relatively flat this year – at odds with the strong trend in nonfarm payrolls. Measures of underemployment are falling. Wage growth remains moderate, more […]