Economic Commentary

It was a roller coaster week for the financial markets. President Trump postponed to December 15 about 60% of the tariff increases that has been set for September 1, presumably to save Christmas (the list of delayed items included things likely to be purchased during the holiday shopping season). The 10-year Treasury note yield fell […]

Next week, the economic calendar picks up again. The Consumer Price Index is expected to get a small boost from higher gasoline prices, which normally fall in July. Ex-food and energy, inflation should remain moderate (note that year-over-year inflation in the core CPI is trending about 0.4 percentage points higher than the PCE Price Index, […]

It was an eventful week. The Fed lowered short-term interest rates, as expected, and ended the unwinding of the balance sheet two months early, but Chair Powell disappointed stock market participants by describing the move as “a mid-cycle adjustment” rather than the start of a series of rate cuts. In his press conference, Powell repeatedly […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth rose at a 2.1% annual rate in the advance estimate for 2Q19, a bit better than the median forecast (+1.8%), but growth was concentrated in just two components, consumer spending and government. Everything else was down. GDP growth is rarely even, but the […]