Economic Commentary

The advance GDP report was a mixed bag. The headline figure was stronger than expected, but boosted by faster inventory growth and a narrower trade deficit, both of which are likely to reverse in the second quarter. Consumer spending and business fixed investment slowed, while residential fixed investment fell for the fifth consecutive quarter. The […]

The advance estimate of 1Q19 GDP growth will arrive on Friday (April 26). There’s always a lot of uncertainty in the advance figure (we’re missing a number of components) and that is especially so this time. The partial government shutdown and poor weather had an adverse impact. A narrower trade deficit should add to the […]

Tax Time – The Treasury Department reported that the federal deficit totaled $691 billion for the first half of FY19, up from $600 billion for the first half of FY18. The full-year deficit (ending in September) is expected to hit $1 trillion. Tax receipts were up 0.7% in the first six months of FY19. Individual […]

Nonfarm payrolls rose a bit more than expected in the initial estimate for March. While the monthly data are subject to statistical noise and seasonal adjustment difficulties, the underlying trend in job growth is likely moderating. That shouldn’t be a surprise. The job market is tight and firms continue to report difficulties in hiring new […]