Economic Commentary
Forget the CPI: Zoom in on the PCE Price Index, particularly the core measure
ECONOMY & POLICY March 15, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Do you know that the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was 2.4% in January while the core PCE was 2.8%? This is very close to the 2% target. We are not saying the road ahead is not going to […]
Employment up (non-farm payrolls), unemployment up (household survey)
ECONOMY & POLICY March 08, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Sometimes, and February was one of those times, the information on the U.S. labor market doesn’t make sense. Many argue that government agencies are cooking the books. However, the counter argument is: Why wouldn’t they cook the books ‘consistently,’ […]
Quirks in the January data: Income vs. consumption
ECONOMY & POLICY March 01, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Personal income increased more than expected in January, up 1.0% (or $233.7 billion). The increase in January closely matches what happened in January of 2023 when it increased by 0.95% (or $213 billion). However, the composition of the increase […]
Cracks in consumption have started to appear
ECONOMY & POLICY February 23, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. From a very weak retail sales report for January 2024 to stronger inflation readings as well as increases in credit card and auto loan delinquency rates during the last quarter of 2023, the picture for consumer demand has weakened […]