Economic Commentary
High inflation is never good, but markets have been overreacting
ECONOMY & POLICY April 19, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. The impact of high inflation on individuals’ finances is not something to take lightly, especially in the U.S., because for almost 40 years we have had no experience with such an event and have no clue how to deal […]
Odds and ends
MARKETS & INVESTING April 15, 2024 Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors. Fed Funds Rate According to Bloomberg calculations based on where Fed Funds futures are currently trading, there is a 20% chance that the FOMC cuts the overnight rate in June and a ~50% chance that they […]
CPI inflation and Federal Reserve rates decision: Back to the drawing board?
ECONOMY & POLICY April 12, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Before we start discussing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) again, we want to remind readers that CPI inflation is not what Federal Reserve (Fed) officials use to determine monetary policy. It is true that markets put a lot of […]
Employment shows no signs of letting off
ECONOMY & POLICY April 05, 2024 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Can Federal Reserve (Fed) officials live with such a strong labor market and still start lowering interest rates in June or July? This question is the reason why we argued, after the latest Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) […]