Economic Commentary

MARKETS & INVESTING April 15, 2024   Drew O’Neil discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors. Fed Funds Rate According to Bloomberg calculations based on where Fed Funds futures are currently trading, there is a 20% chance that the FOMC cuts the overnight rate in June and a ~50% chance that they […]

ECONOMY & POLICY April 12, 2024   Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Before we start discussing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) again, we want to remind readers that CPI inflation is not what Federal Reserve (Fed) officials use to determine monetary policy. It is true that markets put a lot of […]

ECONOMY & POLICY April 05, 2024   Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Can Federal Reserve (Fed) officials live with such a strong labor market and still start lowering interest rates in June or July? This question is the reason why we argued, after the latest Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) […]

ECONOMY & POLICY April 04, 2024   Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes note that while they expect economic growth to slow, they do not foresee a recession in 2024. To read the full article, see the Investment Strategy Quarterly publication linked below. We are normally reluctant to use trendy phrases to explain […]