Economic Commentary
The many lives of the U.S. consumer
ECONOMY & POLICY December 08, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. To argue that the U.S. consumer has remained resilient has become a cliché and at the same time an understatement. After a very strong increase in real incomes during the pandemic, real income growth started to slow considerably. The […]
When would it be ok to start cutting rates, and by how much?
ECONOMY & POLICY December 01, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024. Markets seem to believe that the Fed is going to […]
October CPI inflation: Just what the Dr. recommended
ECONOMY & POLICY November 17, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward. That is, markets are already assuming that the Fed is closer to lowering interest rates than […]
Inflation is decelerating… its effects on consumers are not
ECONOMY & POLICY November 10, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. We understand that many economists/analysts/market participants are already discounting inflation as a serious problem for the U.S. economy. Even if this seems correct on the surface, the problem is very different for those who suffer the most from higher […]