Economic Commentary
When would it be ok to start cutting rates, and by how much?
ECONOMY & POLICY December 01, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Our forecast for the federal funds rate has the Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to cut rates in July 2024, with a second rate cut before the end of 2024. Markets seem to believe that the Fed is going to […]
October CPI inflation: Just what the Dr. recommended
ECONOMY & POLICY November 17, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. October news on CPI inflation was all the doctor recommended and has markets spinning and repricing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential path forward. That is, markets are already assuming that the Fed is closer to lowering interest rates than […]
Inflation is decelerating… its effects on consumers are not
ECONOMY & POLICY November 10, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. We understand that many economists/analysts/market participants are already discounting inflation as a serious problem for the U.S. economy. Even if this seems correct on the surface, the problem is very different for those who suffer the most from higher […]
Add “persistently high” to “higher for longer”
ECONOMY & POLICY November 03, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. After the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were finally able to convince market participants, after more than a year, that the Fed needed to stay “higher for longer” in terms of […]