Economic Commentary
Inflation: It’s not over until it is over
ECONOMY & POLICY April 14, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Markets have been very positive this week on better-than-expected inflation numbers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) printed a better than expected 0.1% in March with the year-over-year rate declining to 5.0% compared to a 6.0% year-over-year rate reported in […]
How the U.S. labor market may shape the Fed’s inflation path
ECONOMY & POLICY April 10, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio Alemán and Economist Giampiero Fuentes examine why U.S. labor force participation still hasn’t fully caught up to pre-pandemic levels. To read the full article, see the Investment Strategy Quarterly publication linked below. Key Takeaways: Labor force participation refers to the percentage of the population who […]
Dollar vs. speculators: Don’t bet against the dollar
ECONOMY & POLICY April 05, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Chinese RMB is not convertible Chinese capital account has not been liberalized Non-Chinese holders of RMB cannot buy Chinese assets S. dollar is not losing its reserve currency status, it represents about 60% Chinese government negotiates bilateral swap lines […]
The case for high(er) for longer is still intact
ECONOMY & POLICY March 31, 2023 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. We know that the markets continue to second guess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) commitment to staying high(er) for longer with respect to interest rates. In fact, markets continue to have the Fed decreasing the federal funds rate considerably, to […]