Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 22, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Over the years, two questions continue to come up on a regular basis. One is whether the dollar will lose its status as the world’s key reserve currency. The other is whether we are heading into a recession. These questions […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 22, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The Fed’s Beige Book noted that “inflationary pressures remained strong” into April, with “steep increases in raw materials, transportation and labor costs.” The Russian invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns in China are adding to supply chain disruptions. In an […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 14, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in March (+8.5% y/y), led by an 18.3% increase in gasoline (+48.0% y/y) and a 1.0% rise in food prices (+8.8% y/y). Ex-food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3% (+6.5% y/y). The […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 08, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The March 15 to 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes noted a general agreement among policymakers to begin reducing the balance sheet in May, ramping up the monthly runoff to $95 billion in three months. In comparison, during […]