Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 11, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in January (overall, and ex-food & energy), a bit higher than expected. That brought the year-over-year increase to 7.5%, the largest 12-month gain since February 1982. Digging deeper, there is one inflation story for […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 04, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Despite omicron disruptions, nonfarm payrolls posted a 467,000 seasonally adjusted gain in January. Annual benchmark revisions shifted job growth around in 2021 and showed a much stronger near-term trend. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% (+5.7% y/y). The unemployment rate […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 04, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The January job market data were expected to be squirrelly, with the Omicron variant expected to dampen the pace of nonfarm payrolls. Instead, we got an upside surprise. Payrolls rose by 467,000. More importantly, annual benchmark revisions redistributed job growth […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY January 28, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. In his renomination hearing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the key to maximum sustainable employment and financial stability was keeping inflation low. However, he didn’t appear as hawkish as financial market participants had feared. The Fed’s Beige Book […]