Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY January 21, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The answer to questions about monetary policy is always “it depends,” but the Fed doesn’t like to surprise the markets, so there’s usually little suspense in the short term. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave short-term […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY January 21, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Fears of tighter Federal Reserve policy continued to weigh on the stock market. The economic calendar was uneventful. Single-family permits rose 2.0% in December but were still down 8.5% from a year earlier (reflecting supply constraints). Homebuilder sentiment – […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY January 07, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The economy added more than 6.4 million jobs in 2021, but December nonfarm payrolls were still 3.6 million below the pre-pandemic level. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% in December 2020 to 3.9% in December 2021, close […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY January 07, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Minutes of the December 14 to 15 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that Federal Reserve officials had entered an initial discussion of “policy normalization,” including an earlier liftoff in short-term interest rates and a potential runoff of […]