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Economic Commentary

New shocks, different strokes

Economy & Policy October 24, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. Yes, this time is different than during the recovery from the pandemic recession. The most important difference was that Americans were awash with cash accumulated during the pandemic, as the U.S. government transferred insane amounts of money to households and […]

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Real-time indicators support a rate cut in October

Economy & Policy October 17, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. This week’s scheduled release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was postponed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has disrupted the operations of key agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, to meet statutory […]

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A “risk management cut” due to a change in the NAIRU?

Economy & Policy September 19, 2025 Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán discusses current economic conditions. From the lack of conviction in the previous meetings to this week’s “risk management cut,” Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to walk a very fine line, hoping for the effects of tariffs to be transitory while, at the same time, […]

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