Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 29, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Earnings reports were mixed. Bond yields declined, as market participants generally expect the Fed to raise short-term interest rates earlier to get inflation under control. Real GDP rose at a 2.0% annual rate in the advance estimate for 3Q21, […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 29, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. As expected, the advance estimate of 3Q21 Gross Domestic Product showed a sharp slowing in growth. More timely data suggest that the economy regained some momentum into early 4Q21. Still, there are important questions regarding the labor market, inflation pressures, […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 22, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The financial markets have factored in Fed tapering for some time now, but the liftoff date for short-term interest rates has continued to drift forward. With inflation pressures likely to last longer, the Fed is widely expected to begin […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 22, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Treasury reported a federal budget deficit of about $2.8 trillion (about 12% of GDP) for FY21. Barring a major unforeseen event, the deficit will fall considerably next year. By itself, that will be a negative for GDP growth, but a […]