Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 14, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% in March (+8.5% y/y), led by an 18.3% increase in gasoline (+48.0% y/y) and a 1.0% rise in food prices (+8.8% y/y). Ex-food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3% (+6.5% y/y). The […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 08, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The March 15 to 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes noted a general agreement among policymakers to begin reducing the balance sheet in May, ramping up the monthly runoff to $95 billion in three months. In comparison, during […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 08, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. March CPI data are expected to show more elevated inflation on a year-over-year basis, boosted by a 20% rise in retail gasoline prices (up nearly 50% y/y). Ex-food & energy, inflation will also remain high (about 6.6% y/y), reflecting ongoing […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 01, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The March Employment Report was strong. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 431,000 – less than expected but with upward revisions to January and February (a 562,000 monthly average in 1Q22). The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, which is where it […]