Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 18, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Tensions in Ukraine dominated. Share prices fell and bonds rallied. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the January 25 to 26 policy meeting suggested no haste in raising short-term interest rates, lowering the market odds of a […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 18, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The minutes of the January 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting suggested no great haste in raising short-term rates. However, the minutes certainly left the door open for a faster pace of tightening if warranted. There are risks in tightening […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 11, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in January (overall, and ex-food & energy), a bit higher than expected. That brought the year-over-year increase to 7.5%, the largest 12-month gain since February 1982. Digging deeper, there is one inflation story for […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY February 04, 2022   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Despite omicron disruptions, nonfarm payrolls posted a 467,000 seasonally adjusted gain in January. Annual benchmark revisions shifted job growth around in 2021 and showed a much stronger near-term trend. Average hourly earnings rose 0.7% (+5.7% y/y). The unemployment rate […]