Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in the initial estimate for May (+973,000 before seasonal adjustment), down 7.6 million (-5.0%) from February 2020 (although we would have added more than two million jobs if not for the pandemic, leaving us about 9.6 million below the pre-pandemic trend). […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Labor Market Outlook – Nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in the initial estimate for May, below the median forecast (+650,000), but less of a disappointment than in April (when payrolls rose by 278,000). Leisure and hospitality accounted for more than half of the May payroll gain, but […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Real GDP rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the government’s second estimate of first quarter GDP growth, the same as in the advance estimate. However, Private Domestic Final Purchases (GDP less government, net exports, and the change in inventories), a better measure of underlying domestic demand, […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the second estimate for the first quarter, same as in the advance estimate. However, key components (i.e., consumer spending, business fixed investment, residential investment) were each revised higher (inventories subtracted 2.8 percentage points from […]