Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY November 19, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. You can learn a lot by talking to people. The economy is “strong,” but also “terrible.” Higher inflation is “transitory,” but also “likely to persist.” Fed policy is “behind the curve,” but also “appropriately positioned.” In truth, the outlook for […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY November 19, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The economic data reports remained supportive but were largely ignored. Investors waited for President Biden’s nominee for Fed chair (Powell or Brainard) and debated when the Fed may begin to raise short-term interest rates. Retail sales rose 1.7% in […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY November 12, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Inflation figures surprised to the upside. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in October (+6.2% year over year), up 0.6% (+4.6% year over year) excluding food and energy. Gasoline rose 6.1% (+49.6% year over year). Used vehicle prices rose […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY November 12, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. October inflation figures were higher than expected. More troublesome, the range of items with higher inflation, relatively narrow in the spring, appears to be widening. Inflation expectations for the next five years have risen. Higher inflation is dampening consumer sentiment. […]