Economic Commentary

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 266,000 in the initial estimate for April, well below the median forecast (+980,000). However, payrolls rose by 1.089 million prior to seasonal adjustment, in line with a typical (pre-pandemic) April. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 6.1% (from 6.0%), reflecting increased […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Prior to seasonal adjustment, nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.089 million in the initial estimate for last month, about what we would see in a typical (pre-pandemic) April. The “problem” was that the seasonally adjusted gain was only 266,000 (+218,000 for the private sector). We shouldn’t make too […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Market Commentary by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist Real GDP rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q21, held back by slower inventory growth and a wider trade deficit. Consumer spending (a 10.7% annual rate), business fixed investment (+9.9%) and residential […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at a 6.4% annual rate in the advance estimate for the first quarter. However, that understates the economy’s strength. Private Domestic Final Purchases, a better measure of underlying domestic demand, rose at a 10.6% pace. […]