Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 22, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The financial markets have factored in Fed tapering for some time now, but the liftoff date for short-term interest rates has continued to drift forward. With inflation pressures likely to last longer, the Fed is widely expected to begin […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 22, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Treasury reported a federal budget deficit of about $2.8 trillion (about 12% of GDP) for FY21. Barring a major unforeseen event, the deficit will fall considerably next year. By itself, that will be a negative for GDP growth, but a […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 15, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Expectations of the Fed’s liftoff in short-term interest rates have continued to inch forward and bond yields have moved moderately higher. However, investors remain optimistic, looking beyond recent concerns (the delta variant and supply chain and labor issues). The […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY October 15, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Minutes from the September 21-22 Federal Open Market Committee reinforced the view that the Fed’s reduction (“tapering”) of its monthly asset purchases will be announced in November. For the financial markets, that’s completely baked in at this point. The Fed […]