Economic Commentary

March 5, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The February Employment Report was stronger than expected, even though job gains were held back by unfavorable weather. Yet, we are a long way from full employment. In his online discussion of the economy, Fed Chair Powell repeated that the central bank is nowhere […]

February 26, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. In his monetary policy testimony, Chair Powell said that the Fed is a long way from achieving its inflation and employment goals. As expected, Powell downplayed concerns about higher inflation and an asset bubble. Nevertheless, long-term interest rates continued to rise, distressing stock […]

February 26, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Long-term interest rates have continued to rise. While part of the increase has been fed by inflation fears, those concerns are overdone. Yet, long-term interest rates should rise as the economy recovers and it’s reasonable to expect that rates will eventually return to pre-pandemic […]

February 19, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Retail sales jumped 5.3% in January (+7.4% y/y), up 5.9% ex-autos (+6.1% y/y). Some of January’s strength reflected a smaller decline in the unadjusted figures (-17.3%, vs. -18.5% in January 2020) following a weak holiday shopping season. However, unadjusted figures were still substantially […]