Economic Commentary

February 19, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher. Retail sales were unexpectedly strong in January, fueled (apparently) by […]

February 12, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. For a variety of reasons, many investors are worried about higher inflation. While we may see reflation (a pickup in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic), a significant increase in underlying inflation appears unlikely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost […]

February 12, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in January (+1.4% y/y), led by a 7.4% rise in gasoline prices (-8.6% y/y). Food prices edged up 0.1% (+3.8% y/y). Ex-food and energy, the CPI was unchanged (+0.031% before rounding, up 1.4% y/y). Homeowners’ equivalent rent […]

February 5, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The U.S. economy lost 2.77 million jobs in the initial estimate for January, which is on par with what we saw a year ago (-2.79 million). Seasonally adjusted, this was recorded as a 49,000 gain (with private-sector payrolls up just 6,000). Still, accounting for […]