Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 13, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Year-over-year inflation remained elevated in July, but the monthly data moderated, providing support to the view that higher inflation will be likely be transitory. Still, it’s only one month and we won’t know for sure until well into 2022. Inflation […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 06, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 943,000 in the initial estimate for July (-133,000 before seasonal adjustment), following a 938,000 gain in June, boosted partly by a seasonal quirk in education (less hiring at the start of the school year resulted […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 06, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 133,000 in July… before seasonal adjustment. Adjusted, payrolls rose by 943,000, following a 938,000 gain in June, partly reflecting a seasonal quirk in education. Ex-the artificial boost in education, payrolls advanced by 672,000 in July, following […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 30, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left short-term interest rates and the monthly pace of asset purchases unchanged. In its policy statement, the FOMC noted that “the economy had made progress” toward its goals. In his press […]