Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 11, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Oh, wow, déjà vu. Once again, the monthly increase in the CPI exceeded expectations. The Consumer Price Index has now posted its largest two-month increase, and its largest year-over-year increase, since mid-2008. So, naturally, bond yields are… lower??? The CPI […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 11, 2021   Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in May (+5.0% y/y, vs. +0.1% y/y in May 2020), up 0.7% ex-food & energy (+3.8% y/y, vs. +1.2% in May 2020). The increase was more than expected but continued to reflect base […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in the initial estimate for May (+973,000 before seasonal adjustment), down 7.6 million (-5.0%) from February 2020 (although we would have added more than two million jobs if not for the pandemic, leaving us about 9.6 million below the pre-pandemic trend). […]

Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The Labor Market Outlook – Nonfarm payrolls rose by 559,000 in the initial estimate for May, below the median forecast (+650,000), but less of a disappointment than in April (when payrolls rose by 278,000). Leisure and hospitality accounted for more than half of the May payroll gain, but […]