Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 14, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell below one million for the first time since mid-March (20 weeks). However, unadjusted claims had already dipped below that level a week earlier. (The seasonal adjustment is multiplicative, with exaggerated adjusted figures in August […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 07, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even  as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 07, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The week’s data reports remained consistent with a further recovery in the economy, but the level of activity remains far below pre-pandemic levels and the pace of improvement appears to have slowed. The ISM surveys for July were stronger than […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 31, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Real GDP was reported to have fallen at a 32.9% annual rate in 2Q20. Nobody should have been surprised by that. Component data had already indicated massive and broad-based weakness and most economists’ estimates fell in the -30% to -35% range. […]