Economic Commentary

February 26, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Long-term interest rates have continued to rise. While part of the increase has been fed by inflation fears, those concerns are overdone. Yet, long-term interest rates should rise as the economy recovers and it’s reasonable to expect that rates will eventually return to pre-pandemic […]

February 19, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Retail sales jumped 5.3% in January (+7.4% y/y), up 5.9% ex-autos (+6.1% y/y). Some of January’s strength reflected a smaller decline in the unadjusted figures (-17.3%, vs. -18.5% in January 2020) following a weak holiday shopping season. However, unadjusted figures were still substantially […]

February 19, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The details of the January Producer Price Index showed a further surge in prices of raw materials. Breakeven inflation rates (the yield spread between inflation-adjusted Treasuries and fixed-rate Treasuries) have continued to move higher. Retail sales were unexpectedly strong in January, fueled (apparently) by […]

February 12, 2021 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. For a variety of reasons, many investors are worried about higher inflation. While we may see reflation (a pickup in prices that were restrained due to the pandemic), a significant increase in underlying inflation appears unlikely. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the cost […]