Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 07, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Nonfarm payrolls rose about as expected in the initial estimate for July, even  as economists’ forecasts were widespread and risks to their job outlooks were generally seen to the downside. The unemployment rate fell a bit more than anticipated, but labor […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY August 07, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The week’s data reports remained consistent with a further recovery in the economy, but the level of activity remains far below pre-pandemic levels and the pace of improvement appears to have slowed. The ISM surveys for July were stronger than […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 31, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Real GDP was reported to have fallen at a 32.9% annual rate in 2Q20. Nobody should have been surprised by that. Component data had already indicated massive and broad-based weakness and most economists’ estimates fell in the -30% to -35% range. […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 31, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Real GDP fell 9.5% in 2Q20 (a -32.9% annual rate), by far the steepest decline on record. Weakness was broad-based, but especially pronounced in consumer services, transportation equipment, and energy exploration. Personal income figures were mixed in June, but spending […]