Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 10, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. On Monday afternoon, the U.S. Treasury is expected to announce a June budget shortfall of about $863 billion, bringing the 12-month total to nearly $3 trillion (or about 14% of pre-pandemic GDP). The red ink will continue. Lawmakers are expected to […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 10, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The economic calendar was thin. Investors remained concerned about rising cases of COVID-19. A return to a full lockdown appears unlikely, but the pace of improvement in the economy is expected to slow. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 57.1 […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 02, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The June job market report and other indicators remained consistent with an unprecedented steep drop in economic activity in March and April, followed by a sharp-but-partial rebound in May and June. Many of these data were collected before the recent surge […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY July 02, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. It’s all about the pandemic. Rising cases in a number of states fueled fears of a second wave of infections and a more protracted economic recovery. In its updated World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast of […]