Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 12, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has formally declared that a recession began in February. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest on record (at least back to 1854). Economic data reports should suggest that the downturn may have ended […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 12, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. The Federal Open Market Committee left short-term interest rates unchanged following its June 9-10 policy meeting and kept its asset purchase plans in place. The Fed released revised projections of growth, unemployment and inflation (after it had refrained from doing […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 05, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. In contrast to expectations of further deterioration, the May Employment Report suggested significant improvement in labor market conditions. No doubt, the economy has turned the corner as states have re-opened. However, the report was sharply at odds with the number of […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY June 05, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Stock market participants remained optimistic about the economy, further encouraged by a surprisingly strong employment report for May. Bond yields moved above their recent range. The May Employment Report was sharply at odds with other labor market indicators. Nonfarm payrolls […]