Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 01, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. In recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in claims for unemployment benefits pointed to a horrific economic impact from COVID-19. That sinking feeling has been reinforced by the major economic releases, which have shown a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY May 01, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Real GDP fell at a 4.8% annual rate in the advance estimate for 1Q20, reflecting sharp declines in consumer spending (-7.6%) and business fixed investment (-8.6%). Personal spending fell 7.5% in March (-3.8% y/y), reflecting sharp declines in motor vehicles, […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses his monthly economic outlook. COVID-19 has affected the data collection process for the major economic reports, including employment, consumer prices, retail sales, and industrial production. However, the incoming economic figures imply a stunningly swift, sharp decline in economic activity. This is especially clear in […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. The broad range of economic data signal that a recession began in March. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the total of final goods and services produced in our economy) is expected to have fallen in the advance estimate for 1Q20. The […]