Economic Commentary

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 24, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. Jobless claims fell to 4.43 million in the week ending April 17, down in recent weeks but still extremely elevated. Prior to seasonal adjustment, 24.4 million people have filed claims in the past five weeks – that’s nearly 15% of […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 17, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. Economic data reports are generally backward-looking. There’s a lot of noise, reflecting statistical uncertainty and seasonal adjustment difficulties. Reports for March 2020 present a greater challenge. Social distancing was sporadic, with some states locking things down sooner than others. One should […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 17, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses the latest market data. COVID-19 has affected data collection for key economic reports, making the reported data somewhat suspect. However, the direction is clear. Looking through the noise, it appears that the economy contracted in the first quarter and 2Q20 will be much worse. […]

ECONOMY AND POLICY April 09, 2020 Chief Economist Scott Brown discusses current economic conditions. For the most part, assessments of the economic impact of COVID-19 have been more qualitative than quantitative. Data reports are backward-looking and often distorted. However, in recent weeks, the unprecedented surge in jobless claims has helped us to begin assessing the […]