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Weekly Market Snapshot

It was a thin week for economic data. Both new and existing home sales were reported lower in September, although the trends are generally higher. Durable goods orders fell 1.1% in September, reflecting the strike at GM and ongoing problems at Boeing. Ex-transportation, orders slipped 0.3%, with mixed results across industries.

Boris Johnson reached a Brexit agreement with the European Union, but the prime minister failed to get that through Parliament, leading to another delay. Some progress was reported in trade talks with China. Earnings reports were mixed.

Next week, the economic calendar is as busy as it gets. While some components are still missing, real GDP is likely to have risen at a 1.6-1.8% annual rate in the advance estimate for 3Q19, reflecting moderate growth in consumer spending and further weakness in business fixed investment. Monthly figures on consumer spending are expected to show a loss of momentum ending the quarter. Some 46,000 striking GM workers will disappear from the nonfarm payrolls total in October (but will return when the strike is settled). Adjustments for the school year may add noise and we could see some hiring for the 2020 census, but the underlying trend in job growth is expected to slow (we need less than 100,000 per month to absorb new entrants into the workforce). Average hourly earnings are expected to pick up following no change in September (watch for revisions). The ISM Manufacturing Index should show that the factory sector remains in contraction. While Fed officials have been divided on the appropriate course of monetary policy, financial markets have largely factored in another insurance cut in short-term interest rates and the Federal Open Market Committee rarely acts against such expectations.

Indices

Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 26496.67 26201.04 13.59%
NASDAQ 7950.78 7872.27 19.83%
S&P 500 2938.13 2910.63 17.20%
MSCI EAFE 1853.25 1849.26 7.75%
Russell 2000 1485.36 1486.35 10.14%

 

Consumer Money Rates

Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 5.00 5.25
Fed Funds 1.80 2.16
30-year mortgage 3.70 4.94

 

Currencies

Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.221 1.320
Dollars per Euro 1.097 1.152
Japanese Yen per Dollar 107.48 112.27
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.333 1.307
Mexican Peso per Dollar 19.571 19.155

 

Commodities

Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 52.59 73.17
Gold 1512.80 1193.40

 

Bond Rates

Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 1.54 1.76
10-year treasury 1.66 1.84
10-year municipal (TEY) 2.09 2.23

 

Treasury Yield Curve – 10/25/2019

Treasury Yield Curve
As of close of business 10/24/2019

 

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 10/25/2019

 

S&P Sector Performance Chart
As of close of business 10/24/2019

 

Economic Calendar

October 28  — Advance Economic Indicators (September)
October 29  — CB Consumer Confidence (October)
 — Pending Home Sales Index (September)
October 30  — ADP Payroll Estimate (October)
 — Real GDP (3Q19, advance estimate)
 — FOMC Policy Decision
 — Powell Press Conference
October 31  — Jobless Claims (week ending October 26)
 — Employment Cost Index (3Q19)
 — Personal Income and Spending (September)
 — Chicago Business Barometer (October)
November 1  — Employment Report (October)
 — ISM Manufacturing Index (October)
November 5  — ISM Manufacturing Index
November 11  — Veterans Day (bond market closed)
November 28  — Thanksgiving Holiday (markets closed)
December 11  — FOMC Policy Decision

 


The opinions offered by Dr. Brown should be considered a part of your overall decision-making process. For more information about this report – to discuss how this outlook may affect your personal situation and/or to learn how this insight may be incorporated into your investment strategy – please contact your financial advisor or use the convenient Office Locator to find our office(s) nearest you today.

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates (RJA) at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete. Other departments of RJA may have information which is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute transactions in the securities mentioned in this report which may not be consistent with the report’s conclusions. RJA may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this report. For institutional clients of the European Economic Area (EEA): This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA Institutional Clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. There is no assurance that any of the trends mentioned will continue in the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results.