Weekly Market Snapshot

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

Stock market participants remained optimistic, despite impeachment. The economic data were mixed, but consistent with moderate growth in the overall economy.

The House approved (largely along party line) two articles of impeachment against President Trump. There is wide expectation that he will be acquitted in the Senate, whenever that trial takes place.

Real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate in the third estimate for 3Q19, same as the second estimate. November personal income and spending data were consistent with about a 2.2% pace of spending growth in 4Q19 (spending accounts for 68% of gross domestic product) – that estimate will change as more information becomes available. Industrial production rose 1.1%, reflecting a rebound from the effects of the GM strike. The Index of Leading Economic Indicators was flat, following three consecutive monthly declines.

Next week, the economic data bunch up on Monday. Durable goods orders tend to be choppy, but seasonal adjustment adds further noise in November and December. Aircraft orders are quirky. Ex-transportation, the data are likely to suggest some stability, but a bigger test will come in 1Q20 (with the production halt of the Boeing 737 Max). New home sales are erratic, but the underlying trend has improved.

 

Indices

	Last	Last Week	YTD return %
DJIA	28376.96	28132.05	21.65%
NASDAQ	8887.22	8717.32	33.94%
S&P 500	3205.37	3168.57	27.86%
MSCI EAFE	2022.03	1983.83	17.57%
Russell 2000	1667.09	1644.81	23.62%

 

Consumer Money Rates

	Last	1 year ago
Prime Rate	4.75	5.25
Fed Funds	1.54	2.19
30-year mortgage	3.83	4.64

 

Currencies

	Last	1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound	1.308	1.261
Dollars per Euro	1.111	1.138
Japanese Yen per Dollar	109.55	112.48
Canadian Dollars per Dollar	1.312	1.348
Mexican Peso per Dollar	18.965	20.116

 

Commodities

	Last	1 year ago
Crude Oil	60.93	47.20
Gold	1478.70	1256.40

 

Bond Rates

	Last	1 month ago
2-year treasury	1.62	1.60
10-year treasury	1.91	1.77
10-year municipal (TEY)	2.29	2.33

 

Treasury Yield Curve – 12/20/2019

 

S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 12/20/2019

 

 

Economic Calendar

December 23	—	Durable Goods Orders (November)
	—	New Home Sales
December 25	—	Christmas Holiday (markets closed)
December 26	—	Jobless Claims (week ending December 21)
December 30	—	Chicago Business Barometer (December)
December 31	—	CB Consumer Confidence (December)
January 1	—	New Year’s Day (markets closed)
January 3	—	ISM Manufacturing Index (December)
	—	FOMC Minutes (12/10-11)
January 10	—	Employment Report (December)
January 20	—	MLK Day (markets closed)
January 29	—	FOMC Policy Decision
January 30	—	Real GDP (4Q19, advance estimate)
February 2	—	Super Bowl LIV
February 3	—	Iowa Caucus

The opinions offered by Dr. Brown should be considered a part of your overall decision-making process. For more information about this report – to discuss how this outlook may affect your personal situation and/or to learn how this insight may be incorporated into your investment strategy – please contact your financial advisor or use the convenient Office Locator to find our office(s) nearest you today.

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates (RJA) at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete. Other departments of RJA may have information which is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute transactions in the securities mentioned in this report which may not be consistent with the report’s conclusions. RJA may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this report. For institutional clients of the European Economic Area (EEA): This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA Institutional Clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. There is no assurance that any of the trends mentioned will continue in the future. Past performance is not indicative of future results.